The US War - Five Years On

[Mango]

6th Gen, I still do not see how you disproved that the U.S is not dependent on Mideast Oil? What difference does it make if it's barrels or milk bottles, the numbers imported to the US speak for themselves.
You say we can get it elsewhere, then why aren't we?

 

[6thGen]

6th Gen, I still do not see how you disproved that the U.S is not dependent on Mideast Oil? What difference does it make if it's barrels or milk bottles, the numbers imported to the US speak for themselves.
You say we can get it elsewhere, then why aren't we?

The numbers don't speak for themselves when you look at where they stack up compared to the rest of our imports. And they don't address the new domestic supply discovered recently or the ANWR reserves. As for why we don't get it elsewhere, because, duh, it would cost more. I never denied that the loss of MidEast oil would sting (even though no one has been able to articulate how we are going to lose it), but it would not send the country to bread lines.

 

[Gypsea]

Interesting article. My hope is that we can find the qualified person that we need and that will actually accept the job! Of course, it will take more than just one person to solve this problem ~ an administration that would listen would be a start.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/10/AR2007041001776.html?hpid=topnews

 

[Bob]

You know...some of us could really learn something here if we didn't have to read through the name calling and posturing. I like the lively debates from all, until while reading, I am interrupted with personal attacks.

As for being young...I used to have strong opinions on many topics, and was convinced I had most of the answers back in the day. It is exhausting "knowing" everything. Like a fine wine, I have mellowed over the years. But, unfortunately I have lost alot of my passion as well....especially in politcs and have found myself with my head in the sand way too often. That said, I thank you all for debating the hard issues and making me think.

I think wisdom, which you have obviously aquired, is much more useful than passion, because passion can be used for the wrong causes.

 

[TooFarTampa]

The numbers don't speak for themselves when you look at where they stack up compared to the rest of our imports. And they don't address the new domestic supply discovered recently or the ANWR reserves. As for why we don't get it elsewhere, because, duh, it would cost more. I never denied that the loss of MidEast oil would sting (even though no one has been able to articulate how we are going to lose it), but it would not send the country to bread lines.

You mean, the Chevron supply discovered last fall that won't be fully online until what, 6 or 7 years? It's good news, certainly (if used and allocated wisely). But please clarify how this is helpful in the short- or even mid-term.

 

[John R]

OK, to all of the kettles out there, I'll recap.

I asked Timmy to explain why the US will shoulder the blame for the Iraqis killing each other. He showed that Republicans believe Saddam was responsible to 9/11. Non sequitur.

Timmy insinuated that we were completely reliant on MidEast oil. I showed that we were not. He then put up numbers from Saudi freaking Arabia which verified my point, but he shifted the goalposts by trying to frame the argument in numbers of barrels. I asked why the Sauds are going to quit shipping oil our way and why the regime is going to fall. I then began to detail (sorry, Tootsie) some history and showed why the Sauds are holding their breath. In other words, I helped answer the question for Timmy. However, I didn't answer it in full because the regime isn't currently facing any real threats of coup d'?tat. He replied that since there are Shia in the Sauds' oil producing regions, we should all climb under our desk.

I said that Arabs are prone to violence. He said I was arrogant and ignorant. He then pointed to a non sequitur and shifted a separate argument to fit his needs after I disproved his first premise, that the US is dependant on MidEast oil. Then everyone (including you) clapped, agreed that I was ignorant, and said that he put me in my place. Chickpea called me names and told me that I should travel more when she obviously meant to post that I should learn more. I replied in kind as an example. I think that about sums it up.

young 6thgen, reading comprehension must not be a requirement with mensa, at 133, drunk. i have posted 3(three) times in this thread. once, to question the current validity of a dated article you posted, the second time to send a loving barb to mr. skunkape, and the third time just recently. although timmy is my friend, i have not jumped on any bandwagon on his behalf. he can do quite well on his own, as evidenced by this thread. you on the other hand, seem to be sinking with your arguments, having to prove yourself, and continually slashing at anybody who comes by. it is quite amusing to watch. maybe this is not the board for you, as we are not for you, so we must be wrong. the illuminati must have a board for you, somewhere. don't you need to start preparing for the prom?

 

[Mango]

The numbers don't speak for themselves when you look at where they stack up compared to the rest of our imports. And they don't address the new domestic supply discovered recently or the ANWR reserves. As for why we don't get it elsewhere, because, duh, it would cost more. I never denied that the loss of MidEast oil would sting (even though no one has been able to articulate how we are going to lose it), but it would not send the country to bread lines.

Here is an overview of US Petroleum Trade from 1973 (oil crisis) to Dec. 2006 from the Persian Gulf and OPEC. It's almost the same amount.

Looks to me that we have ourselves in the same conundrum again, and you can not refute that the 1973 oil crisis had no impact economically on our country.

Inserting a "duh" comment just re-asserts your childlike behaviour thus far on this Board.

 

[6thGen]

John R. - Here is what you said.

"the burden of being so young and knowing everything must be very heavy. you ask to be engaged, yet follow up by throwing around insults like a child who hasn't gotten their way. quite sad, the (supposed)intellect is not matched by the tact. how's the pototo salad coming?"

The potato salad needs a little less mayo. You've repeatedly called me a child, you've asked if I should prepare for the prom (I did have a very attractive date so I had to look good), and you've said that instead of making an argument, I "slash at anyone who comes by". I briefed you on where we stood, without insulting anyone. Again you responded with a crux of an argument having to do with my age. Care to show me where my argument is sinking? Other than because you said so?

TFT,
Yes, it does take about that long to get oil online. The main reason is overregulation that could be expedited in time of crisis. You have a relatively small group of folks standing athwart development yelling "Stop!" as we've seen with ANWR. They wouldn't have the power they did should we face an immediate oil crisis. Again, I didn't say losing MidEast oil wouldn't sting, but we wouldn't have to send in Bruce Willis to save the world, either.

I'll ask again. How are we going to lose MidEast oil and how is the Saudi regime going to fall? You all are great at showing the loss' impact, but you haven't explained how we get to the loss.

 

[Beemn]

To focus on the war.... here is a breakdown of deaths!

http://icasualties.org/oif/Service.aspx

Clearly the army and marines are the people dying. If you further break it down it is the infantryman that bears the burden of the administrations bluster. And yet we spend half of what the entire planet spends on defense!

http://borgenproject.org/Defense_Spending.html

The infantryman isn't gettin the money ...So where is it going!

 

[Uncle Timmy]

Whoa,

Ok I'm on my lunchbreak and trying very hard to go thru all the stuff in the thread. Not time to get to everything but I am so pleased at everybody who thanked me for bringing up my points. it has been my pleasure to offer whatever insight I have from my 8 years in the Mid-East. It is a VERY complicated situation.

I wanted to quickly post the following (portion) of a US Army assessment of current threats posed to the Saudi Arabia.

From the US Army?s Strategic Studies Institute Report 598 , dated March 2005

From the Section Entitled Saudi Security Concerns:

Doomsday scenarios to be avoided are:
? an assassination, or death and subsequent crisis in the royal
family leading to regime disintegration;
? a civil war between regime supporters and Islamist extremists,
and their respective tribal and familial allies;
? an unmanageable attack on the oil region; or
? a serious conflict with Saudi Arabia?s neighbors.

The danger of a civil war might arise from a situation in which
a segment of the Saudi government is radicalized from within. If
that were the case, then the alliances of security, military, or national
guard forces might be subverted, unlikely as this is at present. An
attack on the oil facilities is a serious concern. More than one-half
of Saudi Arabia?s oil reserves are located in just 8 of about 80 fields,
including Ghawar, which produces nearly half of the country?s
total production. Extremists attacked oil installations in 2004, and
Saudi security has foiled other and earlier attacks. The 2004 attacks
specifically targeted expatriates, but perhaps attacks will become
less specific as in Iraq where Iraqi crude exports were affected, and
pumping was deliberately halted in August 2004.125 Oil loading
facilities and the two main pipelines, the Petroline and the Abqaiq-
Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, as well as tankers, might also be
targeted. Strategic planners and military games must not predicate
easy victory; rather, the lessons of the Iraqi insurgency should be
carefully integrated into scenarios concerning the oil fields, which
are now protected by forces of over 30,000, and possess sophisticated
surveillance equipment. Still, the likelihood of infiltration by small
groups seeking to keep their cause alive or future coordinated
multiple attacks must be considered. Even the brief attack on the
U.S. consulate in Jeddah triggered a rise in oil prices, so the economic
impact of any such scenarios should also be assessed.




- I will let everyone digest that assessment and then we can discuss my opinion that Bush's md-east policies have increased the likelyhood of one of these scenarios occuring.