Occupancy and Layoffs...

[ckhagen]

So, would anyone here who spends a great portion of their time managing rentals like to chime in on this subject?

What are future bookings looking like in the area? Just a generality, no need for specifics or names. Good? Bad? Neither? Compared to last year?

Let's just say there's some sweeping layoffs taking place (NOT seasonal, not at all). And I'm trying to figure out what's really going on. Anyone care to give me some reassurance or doomsday predictions? I'm starting to worry... actually, more like pee my pants...

 

[ASH]

When I have to call my wife and ask her to call me back just to make sure my cell is working, you know it's bad. :shock:

I speak with everyone I can. Mainly builders and architects as well as articles from NAHB, New York Times and Wall Street Journal (anywhere I can find them) and I am convinced that it will not be next year that we see the housing market rebound to the point that it begins to prop up surrounding business and jobs.

This is one time I would dearly love to be wrong.

 

[30A Skunkape]

The rentals on our street seem to have been occupied all summer, for what that is worth as a barometer.

 

[BeachSiO2]

From October 2007-June 2008, the rentals for BSW are up 4.7% over October 2006-June 2007.

 

[ckhagen]

I know they were up this year, that's definitely true. Actually, I think everyone did very well this year.
I'm talking about projections for the coming year... homes, condos, and hotels.

People are losing their jobs left and right and we just came really close to being one of them. This is all supposedly based off of future projections based on current bookings from what I understand. I'm just curious to see if anyone else is seeing a huge drop as well.

 

[TooFarTampa]

It's a good question. Personally I am planning for having to give deeper discounts next year in order to keep the prime weeks booked, or to let some weeks go unbooked in the summer.

I noticed this year that many of our rental bookings came around the time the stimulus was announced, and I got several final payments during the early weeks the checks were sent out.

I noticed many more "lowballs" this year for our open weeks. Some I deemed reasonable and many I did not.

We have a very nice but not "prime" property, with some excellent features. Any downturn in bookings will certainly force us to lower rates, because people will have more nice choices.

I would guess that holiday spending will be a good indicator.

I feel for the people who are worried about their jobs. That is a much bigger deal.

 

[beachmouse]

There was an article in the Daily fishwrapper the other day talking about how lodging bookings were steady but that people were cutting back in other ways on their trip- booking half day instead of full day fishing charters, eating more meals in their condos instead of at restaurants, etc.

 

[ckhagen]

I saw the article last night and I found the timing interesting to say the least. The unemployment line in Walton County could be pretty long this week...

 

[scooterbug44]

IMO a lot of local businesses/people are hurting due to a combo of the major downturns in the local real estate/construction market and tourist dollars being tighter due to rough situations elsewhere.

I think any recovery will be slow because even people who are still financially okay are being cautious and lots of folks got hurt by the downturn, but that we'll see an upturn before many other areas of the US.

There are many people who think we'll see an upturn soon, but I've yet to hear anything very positive from anyone but a real estate agent. (I'm not picking on them, they're just the only ones reporting good news right now in supreme contrast to everyone else.) Sales ARE happening as far as I can tell, it just isn't being felt yet in other areas.

 

[Biff]

I guess I need to come down ASAP and make a purchase;-)

IMO a lot of local businesses/people are hurting due to a combo of the major downturns in the local real estate/construction market and tourist dollars being tighter due to rough situations elsewhere.

I think any recovery will be slow because even people who are still financially okay are being cautious and lots of folks got hurt by the downturn, but that we'll see an upturn before many other areas of the US.

There are many people who think we'll see an upturn soon, but I've yet to hear anything very positive from anyone but a real estate agent. (I'm not picking on them, they're just the only ones reporting good news right now in supreme contrast to everyone else.) Sales ARE happening as far as I can tell, it just isn't being felt yet in other areas.