Occupancy and Layoffs...

[wrobert]

It appears this thread is about possible cuts in the private sector, but what about gov't employees? We got our property tax assessment info this week and it appears values are way down. OBVIOUSLY they are down in real life but I am wondering if the county has reassessed properties across the board, just to get a fresh start. Will we see a dramatically lower budget and lots of layoffs on that end too? Haven't seen this discussed yet.

I know the school district here is proposing a millage increase to offset the decreased revenue. I have seen no county layoffs, just raises. I think the city here is giving a 5-7% raise.

 

[Miss Critter]

I guess I'll play the part of of the optimist, the U.S. is experiencing a slow down, but the numbers just don't point to a recession. I think we're in the final stretch, we weathered the subprime / bank failure thing pretty well. I think we'll come out of this by next year.

We're sorry. The part of the optimist has been cut due to budget constraints.

 

[Miss Kitty]

We're sorry. The part of the optimist has been cut due to budget constraints.

We've weathered the '80s and '90s as far as downturns in RE and the economy. I was very busy raising children, but Mr. K is a Corporate/RE attorney, and we relied on him solely for our income (no trust funds or oil wells, dammit). Times got tough for many, but I don't remember throwing in the towel, at all...well, except for all those RE guys living beyond their means. ;-)

Question...what in your mind is different about this time around and why do you think America will not bounce back, eventually? I am thinking it must be that housing, jobs and gas prices are bigger in your face hits than super high interest rates and S/L messes. Those of you that know me, know that my glass has a leak...so, this reeks of optimism on my part!!!

 

[futurebeachbum]

Bad economy, good rentals

For our 3 places, this was an interesting rental year.

It started very slow and when it finally picket up the rentals came in bunches.

As it has turned out, this will probably be our best overall rental year.

Somehow, I think higher gas prices and economic uncertainty improved rentals, but caused people to wait longer to arrange them (just in case things got better.)

If you pile a family onto a plane and fly somewhere for vacation it is pretty expensive. Hotels are high, eating all 3 meals a day is expensive, drinks in bars cost a lot, etc..

OTOH, several families can get together and rent a house. That lowers the cost a lot. The only transport cost is gas and while gas was more expensive this year, it probably didn't increase the cost of a typical round trip drive to Sowal by more than $100-$150. And with a house, you don't have to eat out every meal or pay bar prices for libations.

All-in-all, I suspect that a bad economy actual helps rentals by hurting the competition.

 

[wrobert]

Okay. I heard this evening that occupancy at the Hilton next week is at 26% from reservations. The big cheese is coming to visit to find out what is going on.

The local block plant went from 90 hour work weeks to laying people off on Friday. They finished the block orders for the commercial buildings in the DeFuniak Springs area and have nothing in the hopper.

A friend owns a discount food store and is feeling enormous pressure to help restock local church food banks. Of course his sales are down considerably so he has to be careful what he does.

So that is my take on the bad economic news.

Good news is that with the airport coming there will be lots of work. One commissioner is going to four lane 331 to the I-10 and reduce regulations from planning until we get back on track. I am a strong believer that we should jump start Emerald Coast Middle School. A hurricane is coming, that always increases sales tax and and recovery monies will be flowing from insurance companies. Of course we all will probably not be able to get insurance after this. Charlie Crist just ordered the State to fast track 28 billion in construction projects that are in progress. Mostly stopped due to environmental lawsuits. It should be noted, this is NOT new money. The State of Florida had to pay someone 230 million just for the option to borrow 4 billion if we have a 25 billion disaster. So if anyone thinks that there is 28 billion in new money becoming available they are sadly misinformed.

 

[Miss Critter]

Wow, the definition of "good news" has certainly changed.

 

[wrobert]

Wow, the definition of "good news" has certainly changed.

It sure has. For some reason people have not realized that four hurricanes in a row is what got us into this mess. The sales tax collections on the recovery exploded. Every time the conferencing committee met they gave the legislature another billion dollars to spend. And legislators, being what they are, spent it. Now they are complaining about revenue falling when there is no anomaly to push it up. So the hurricanes and the real estate boom set up a fall that those guys in Tallahassee are still trying to come to grips with.

 

[Miss Critter]

I would imagine that real estate transfer fee also had something to do with it. Properties selling once, twice or three times in one year all for higher prices certainly adds up. Then to have it come to a screeching halt. . .
Where does the RE transfer fee money go, anyway?

 

[TooFarTampa]

It sure has. For some reason people have not realized that four hurricanes in a row is what got us into this mess. The sales tax collections on the recovery exploded. Every time the conferencing committee met they gave the legislature another billion dollars to spend. And legislators, being what they are, spent it. Now they are complaining about revenue falling when there is no anomaly to push it up. So the hurricanes and the real estate boom set up a fall that those guys in Tallahassee are still trying to come to grips with.

Just want to say - I would vote for you.

I would imagine that real estate transfer fee also had something to do with it. Properties selling once, twice or three times in one year all for higher prices certainly adds up. Then to have it come to a screeching halt. . .
Where does the RE transfer fee money go, anyway?

Excellent point. I don't know the answer to your question, but the public sector obviously got addicted to all that easy money just like everyone else.

 

[wrobert]

I would imagine that real estate transfer fee also had something to do with it. Properties selling once, twice or three times in one year all for higher prices certainly adds up. Then to have it come to a screeching halt. . .
Where does the RE transfer fee money go, anyway?

You are correct. Not being in the real estate business I forget about all those doc stamps that were paid every time a property was flipped. That was a substantial amount of dough. So you have two unusual events occurring simultaneously. To say government became addicted is an understatement. If my memory is working the BCC raised the budget 57% in 2004 alone. At the same time reducing the millage rate which the local homesteaded property owners, voters, saw. It was a politicians dream scenario. Problem now is each one of these projects comes with a fixed cost that must be paid. And with revenue falling, capital monies are being shifted to pay these recurring costs. Rather than looking at reigning these in, they are putting off capital purchases such as vehicles and equipment. This will catch up to us next year and the year after. Maybe then we will be able to sit down and take a serious look at cost of government and the priorities that we wish to fund. Otherwise, the easy way may become the norm and significant millage rate increases passed to offset these costs. I believe the school district's attempt at passage of a small millage rate increase this year, when it was shown that it was not needed, and when it was the first such increase in 11 years, was nothing more than testing the waters to see just what sort of reaction the public would make.